Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Adolis GarciaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Moniak homered to right center (437 feet).1–4
- 2García homered to right center (405 feet).1–3
- 1Rumfield homered to right (387 feet), Goodman scored.0–3
- 1Moniak homered to right (433 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML PHI -156 / COL +129
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -140
- COL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.9 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1399 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +3 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +98 Elo | PHI 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.326th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 13th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.922nd of 30 |
| 1st of 302–0 | Road vs home | 0–227th of 29 |
| 29th of 301459 | Opponent Elo | 15138th of 30 |
| 4th of 301536 | Elo rating | 139930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–6 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–6 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | — |
| Underdog | — | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2–1 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2–1 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 18–4 COL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 22.