Philadelphia Phillies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Marsh hit sacrifice fly to left, Harper scored.6–4
- 7Bohm doubled to right, Schwarber scored, Harper to third.5–4
- 7Harper singled to right, Crawford scored and Turner scored, Schwarber to second.4–4
- 5Harper doubled to right, Crawford scored, Schwarber to third.2–4
- 5Turner grounded out to second, Realmuto scored, Crawford to third.1–4
- 4Arraez hit sacrifice fly to right, Bader scored.0–4
- 3Ramos singled to center, Chapman scored.0–3
- 3Chapman tripled to center, Adames scored and Arraez scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML PHI -120 / SF +100
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SF: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +28 Elo | PHI 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 2.630th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.121st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −2.529th of 30 |
| 6th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–630th of 30 |
| 30th of 301455 | Opponent Elo | 15283rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301533 | Elo rating | 149120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–7 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 2–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | — | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3–1 | 4–3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–1 | 4–3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 10–10 SF in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 20.