Arizona Diamondbacks at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Jeremiah JacksonBatting3-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jackson homered to center (427 feet).7–9
- 7Alonso homered to left center (399 feet), Ward scored.7–8
- 6Jackson homered to left (406 feet), Beavers scored, Taveras scored and Cowser scored.7–6
- 6Taveras singled to left, Alonso scored, Beavers to second.7–2
- 6Arenado homered to center (401 feet), Del Castillo scored and Vargas scored.7–1
- 4Arenado homered to left (397 feet), Fernandez scored.4–1
- 3Henderson tripled to center, Alexander scored.2–1
- 3Marte homered to right (405 feet).2–0
- 1Marte homered to right (443 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML ARI +109 / BAL -131
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 50.9%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −3 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +6 Elo | BAL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 5–415th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 148424th of 30 |
| 13th of 301510 | Elo rating | 149022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–5 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 9–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–6–2 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–5 BAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.