Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Jose FernandezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Del Castillo singled to right, Fernandez scored, Marte to third.4–3
- 8Fernandez singled to center, Perdomo scored.3–3
- 6Harper doubled to right, Schwarber scored.2–3
- 6Turner homered to right center (359 feet), Crawford scored.2–2
- 6Arenado hit sacrifice fly to right, Vargas scored, Carroll to third.2–0
- 2McCann doubled to center, Arenado scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML ARI +109 / PHI -132
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −1 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zach Pop (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +21 Elo | PHI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 4–419th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 147230th of 30 |
| 13th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15284th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–5 | 3–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 8–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 8–5–2 | 7–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 15–14 PHI in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 29.