Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Fernandez singled to center, Perdomo scored, Del Castillo to third.3–4
- 3Harper homered to center (419 feet).2–4
- 3Schwarber homered to right (381 feet), Bohm scored and Crawford scored.2–3
- 1Del Castillo singled to center, Carroll scored.2–0
- 1Marte homered to right center (406 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML ARI +104 / PHI -126
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −15 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +27 Elo | PHI 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.524th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 19th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 3–424th of 30 |
| 4th of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 147129th of 30 |
| 13th of 301510 | Elo rating | 15274th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–5 | 3–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 7–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 8–4–2 | 7–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 15–13 PHI in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 28.