San Francisco Giants at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BazPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Henderson homered to right (383 feet), Jackson scored.6–3
- 7Lee homered to right (361 feet), Schmitt scored.6–1
- 7Schmitt doubled to left, Chapman scored.4–1
- 4Taveras doubled to right, Beavers scored.3–1
- 4Adames doubled to left, Ramos scored, Bailey to third.3–0
- 4Ramos singled to right, Schmitt scored.2–0
- 3Adames homered to right center (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML SF +109 / BAL -132
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 51.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.1 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +1 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +13 Elo | BAL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 3.821st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.115th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 3–315th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301525 | Opponent Elo | 148125th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–8 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5–3 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 5–4 BAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.