Arizona Diamondbacks at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Adrian Del CastilloBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Jeremiah JacksonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Arenado singled to center, Vargas scored.8–5
- 10Del Castillo homered to center (420 feet), Carroll scored.7–5
- 7Taveras singled to left, Henderson scored.5–5
- 7Del Castillo grounded out to shortstop, Marte scored, Carroll to third.5–4
- 6Thomas grounded out to first, Fernandez scored, Arenado to second.4–4
- 5Jackson homered to left center (387 feet), Wilson scored.3–4
- 4Barrosa doubled to right, Thomas scored.3–2
- 3Jackson singled to left, Alonso scored, Rodríguez to second.2–2
- 3Carroll scored on error and Perdomo scored on error, Del Castillo safe at first on fielding error by left fielder Wilson, Del Castillo safe at third on error.2–1
- 2Huff doubled to left, Mayo scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 56%
- ML ARI +119 / BAL -143
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 49.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -129
- ARI +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.2 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +10 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +6 Elo | ARI 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.215th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 6–515th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 148824th of 30 |
| 13th of 301510 | Elo rating | 149022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–6 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7–2 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 5–6 BAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.