Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alonso doubled to right, Alexander scored, Ward to third.2–4
- 9Henderson hit sacrifice fly to right, Taveras scored, Alexander to third.1–4
- 6Valera singled to left, Ramírez scored, Manzardo to second.0–4
- 5Kwan singled to right, Rocchio scored.0–3
- 1Ramírez homered to right center (388 feet), DeLauter scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML BAL +113 / CLE -136
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 57.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -123
- BAL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +11 | BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +54 Elo | CLE 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 4–27th of 30 |
| 24th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15182nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301488 | Elo rating | 151212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–10 | 10–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 9–12 CLE in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.