Cleveland Guardians at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting1-4
- Martin PerezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schneemann singled to center, Martínez scored and Ramírez scored.6–0
- 9Kwan scored on throwing error by catcher Heim.4–0
- 9Kwan scored on throwing error by catcher Heim.4–0
- 9Kwan scored on throwing error by catcher Heim.4–0
- 8DeLauter doubled to right, Schneemann scored.3–0
- 6Hoskins grounded out to third, Martínez scored, DeLauter to second, Ramírez to third.2–0
- 1Ramírez homered to left (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML CLE +100 / ATL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 51.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −7 | CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +10 Elo | ATL 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.54th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 2.61st of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +2.91st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 5–22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301526 | Opponent Elo | 149121st of 30 |
| 11th of 301512 | Elo rating | 15189th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–6 | 11–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 7–3 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–8 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.