Cleveland Guardians at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Riley singled to left, Baldwin scored, Riley safe at second on throwing error by left fielder Martínez.5–11
- 8Baldwin doubled to right, Dubón scored.5–10
- 8Martínez singled to short left, Brito scored and Hoskins scored, Fry to third.5–9
- 8Hoskins singled to left, DeLauter scored.3–9
- 7Smith singled to left, Yastrzemski scored, Albies to second.2–9
- 7Albies singled to center, Olson scored, Yastrzemski to third.2–8
- 6Harris II homered to right center (425 feet), Smith scored.2–7
- 6Smith singled to right, Riley scored.2–5
- 6Olson homered to right (441 feet), Baldwin scored.2–4
- 6Acuña Jr. homered to left (411 feet).2–2
- 5Kwan singled to left, Martínez scored on fielding error by left fielder Yastrzemski, Kwan to second, Rocchio safe at third.2–1
- 4Manzardo homered to center (454 feet).1–1
- 3Acuña Jr. singled to center, Smith scored, Harris II to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 56%
- ML CLE +117 / ATL -141
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.3%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -127
- CLE +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +5 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +37 Elo | ATL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 2.51st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +2.62nd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 7th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 4–27th of 30 |
| 1st of 301525 | Opponent Elo | 148923rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301515 | Elo rating | 151510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–5 | 10–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–7 ATL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.