Cleveland Guardians at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.2 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Braves- Dominic SmithBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Riley doubled to left, Baldwin scored and Olson scored.1–13
- 8Olson doubled to center, Mateo scored, Baldwin to third.1–11
- 8Baldwin grounded into fielder's choice to third, Dubón scored, Acuña Jr. out at second, Mateo to third.1–10
- 6Hoskins homered to center (411 feet).1–9
- 5Dubón singled to center, Farmer scored, Dubón out stretching at second.0–9
- 5Farmer doubled to left, Albies scored and Riley scored.0–8
- 5Albies singled to center, Olson scored, Riley to third.0–6
- 4Smith homered to right (371 feet), Albies scored.0–5
- 2Acuña Jr. doubled to left, Mateo scored.0–3
- 2Mateo singled to center, Dubón scored.0–2
- 2Dubón doubled to center, Yastrzemski scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML CLE +155 / ATL -188
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.5%, market 62.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -166
- CLE +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 2.9 – 4.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +16 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +31 Elo | ATL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 2.91st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +2.32nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 5–312th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301525 | Opponent Elo | 149420th of 30 |
| 10th of 301515 | Elo rating | 151511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–6 | 11–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 7–4 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–8 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.