Cleveland Guardians at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Church doubled to right, Urías scored.3–5
- 7Naylor doubled to center, Schneemann scored and Hoskins scored.3–4
- 6Burleson singled to center, Church scored and Scott II scored, Herrera to third.1–4
- 6Wetherholt hit sacrifice fly to right, Winn scored, Scott II to second, Church to third.1–2
- 2Pagés singled to left, Church scored, Pagés to second.1–1
- 1Manzardo singled to center, Ramírez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML CLE -110 / STL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- STL: Elo 48.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- CLE -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | −17 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 1.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +14 Elo | CLE 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 6–515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 149718th of 30 |
| 12th of 301513 | Elo rating | 147526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–8 | 8–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 10–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–7 STL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.