Cleveland Guardians at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Church hit sacrifice fly to right, Saggese scored.5–6
- 9Pozo doubled to right, Winn scored.5–5
- 8Wetherholt homered to left (366 feet), Fermín scored.5–4
- 8Martínez doubled to right, Brito scored and Manzardo scored.5–2
- 8Valera doubled to left, Ramírez scored, Manzardo to third.3–2
- 3Wetherholt homered to right center (396 feet).2–2
- 2Schneemann homered to center (424 feet).2–1
- 1Herrera homered to left (401 feet).1–1
- 1Ramírez homered to right (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML CLE -131 / STL +109
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.8%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.7 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +8 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +19 Elo | CLE 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.627th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.327th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 5–515th of 30 |
| 1st of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 149618th of 30 |
| 12th of 301515 | Elo rating | 147426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–7 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9 | 9–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–6 STL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.