Cleveland Guardians at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pagés hit sacrifice fly to left, Walker scored.9–3
- 8Kwan singled to left, Brito scored and Rocchio scored.9–2
- 8Rocchio reached on infield single to pitcher, Fry scored. Rocchio to second, Brito safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Fernandez.7–2
- 6Walker homered to left center (398 feet).6–2
- 6Rocchio homered to left (402 feet), Hedges scored.6–1
- 4Hedges hit sacrifice fly to left, Fry scored, Schneemann to second.4–1
- 4Schneemann singled to right, Hoskins scored and Ramírez scored, Fry to third.3–1
- 1Burleson singled to right, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to second.1–1
- 1Martínez homered to left (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML CLE -122 / STL +102
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 52.9%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -111
- STL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.1 – 3.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +5 | CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +20 Elo | CLE 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 5–417th of 30 |
| 1st of 301525 | Opponent Elo | 149518th of 30 |
| 12th of 301512 | Elo rating | 147726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–7 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 8–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–6 STL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.