Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Brayan RocchioBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Naylor homered to right (397 feet).2–4
- 8Henderson homered to right (368 feet).2–3
- 5Rocchio homered to right (357 feet), Hoskins scored and Schneemann scored.1–3
- 4Taveras homered to right (399 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 56%
- ML BAL +119 / CLE -143
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 58.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -129
- BAL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.5 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +9 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +57 Elo | CLE 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 14th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 5–38th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15164th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301489 | Elo rating | 151113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–11 | 11–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–9 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 10–13 CLE in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.