St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Trammell singled to right, Correa scored, Smith to third.9–4
- 8Herrera homered to left (383 feet), Wetherholt scored.9–3
- 7Gorman homered to right (353 feet), Burleson scored and Walker scored.7–3
- 5Altuve homered to left (384 feet).4–3
- 4Herrera singled to center, Pagés scored.4–2
- 3Alvarez homered to right (357 feet).3–2
- 3Vázquez homered to left (357 feet).3–1
- 3Winn singled to left, Herrera scored and Wetherholt scored, Burleson to third.3–0
- 1Walker singled to center, Wetherholt scored, Burleson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML STL +104 / HOU -126
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −10 | STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +20 Elo | HOU 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.36th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 12th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 146830th of 30 |
| 26th of 301477 | Elo rating | 149519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–9 | 8–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7–1 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–5 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.