Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Johnston singled to center, Tovar scored, Julien to second.6–7
- 5Goodman homered to left center (396 feet).5–7
- 4Beck homered to right (359 feet).4–7
- 3Vázquez singled to left, Smith scored, Loperfido to second.3–7
- 3Loperfido singled to right, Walker scored, Smith to third.3–6
- 3Smith singled to right, Correa scored, Walker to second.3–5
- 3Walker grounded into fielder's choice to third, Alvarez scored, Correa to second.3–4
- 3Alvarez doubled to right, Altuve scored and Vázquez scored.3–3
- 2Walker homered to left (422 feet).3–1
- 2McCarthy tripled to center, Beck scored and Karros scored.3–0
- 1Goodman homered to left (377 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 62%
- ML COL +153 / HOU -186
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 63.2%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -165
- COL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.7 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −4 | COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Colton Gordon: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +94 Elo | HOU 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 6.329th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Road vs home | 5–23rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 148029th of 30 |
| 30th of 301405 | Elo rating | 149419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–6 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | — | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–10 | 12–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–11 HOU in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.