Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting3-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance McCullers Jr.Pitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crawford singled to left, Young scored, Rivas to second, Donovan to third.7–8
- 5Rodríguez homered to center (426 feet), Crawford scored.7–7
- 5Raleigh hit sacrifice fly to left, Rivas scored.7–5
- 5Crawford singled to center, Canzone scored and Young scored, Rivas to second, Rivas safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Trammell.7–4
- 4Paredes singled to left, Trammell scored, Peña to third.7–2
- 3Smith singled to center, Correa scored and Loperfido scored.6–2
- 3Alvarez homered to right center (395 feet).4–2
- 2Trammell doubled to left, Correa scored, Smith scored and Loperfido scored.3–2
- 1Raleigh homered to right (364 feet), Crawford scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML HOU +135 / SEA -163
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -146
- HOU +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.3 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −2 | HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +47 Elo | SEA 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.1 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 4–418th of 30 |
| 30th of 301470 | Opponent Elo | 150613th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15199th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–4 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 14–26 SEA in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 40.