Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Willi CastroBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Moniak homered to right center (426 feet), Karros scored.1–5
- 4Castro homered to right center (436 feet), Rumfield scored.1–3
- 2Castro singled to left, Johnston scored, Rumfield to second.1–1
- 2Walker homered to right (371 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 60%
- ML HOU -168 / COL +139
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.2%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -150
- COL +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.9 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | HOU: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +79 Elo | HOU 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 307.0 | Runs scored | 3.919th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–3 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 30 |
| 28th of 301474 | Opponent Elo | 151210th of 30 |
| 14th of 301508 | Elo rating | 140430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–5 | 8–2 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | — |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–2 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 11–4 COL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.