Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Cam SmithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cody BoltonPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Troy JohnstonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Diaz singled to right, Smith scored.7–9
- 8Loperfido grounded out to shortstop, Walker scored, Smith to third.6–9
- 7Altuve reached on infield single to third, Peña scored.5–9
- 6Johnston homered to right (407 feet).4–9
- 6Loperfido hit sacrifice fly to left, Altuve scored.4–8
- 5Karros singled to right, Castro scored, McCarthy to second, Doyle to third.3–8
- 5Castro singled to right, Rumfield scored.3–7
- 5Rumfield tripled to left, Goodman scored and Johnston scored.3–6
- 5Johnston doubled to center, Julien scored, Goodman to third.3–4
- 5Goodman singled to left, Karros scored, Julien to third.3–3
- 5Julien singled to right, Castro scored and Doyle scored, Karros to third.3–2
- 4Smith homered to center (462 feet).3–0
- 1Walker singled to right, Correa scored.2–0
- 1Correa doubled to right, Altuve scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML HOU -149 / COL +123
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.5%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -133
- COL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | HOU: Cody Bolton (no track record yet) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +89 Elo | HOU 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 307.0 | Runs scored | 3.327th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 17th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 1–225th of 30 |
| 26th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 15139th of 30 |
| 13th of 301510 | Elo rating | 140230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–4 | 7–2 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–2 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | — |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–2 | 2–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 2–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 11–3 COL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 14.