Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alvarez homered to right (389 feet), Vázquez scored and Peña scored.6–9
- 7Raleigh grounded out to second, Rivas scored, Crawford to second.3–9
- 7Crawford singled to center, Canzone scored, Rivas to third.3–8
- 7Young scored on France wild pitch, Canzone to third on wild pitch by France.3–7
- 7Young scored on France wild pitch, Canzone to third on wild pitch by France.3–7
- 7Canzone doubled to right, Raley scored, Young to third.3–6
- 5Arozarena homered to left center (426 feet), Naylor scored.3–5
- 2Vázquez doubled to left, Correa scored, Paredes scored and Walker scored.3–3
- 1Raley grounded out to second, Rodríguez scored, Arozarena to second, Naylor to third. Seattle Mariners challenged call on the field was overturned0–3
- 1Arozarena hit by pitch, Raleigh scored, Naylor to second, Rodríguez to third.0–2
- 1Crawford scored on Imai wild pitch, Rodríguez to second on wild pitch by Imai, Raleigh to third on wild pitch by Imai.0–1
- 1Crawford scored on Imai wild pitch, Rodríguez to second on wild pitch by Imai, Raleigh to third on wild pitch by Imai.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML HOU +113 / SEA -136
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -123
- HOU +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.8 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −5 | HOU: Tatsuya Imai: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +22 Elo | SEA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.1 | Runs scored | 3.128th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 3.23rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 3–422nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301466 | Opponent Elo | 150711th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Elo rating | 15179th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–7 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–4 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 14–25 SEA in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 39.