Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting2-4
- Enyel De Los SantosPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Johnston singled to center, Goodman scored, McCarthy to third.1–9
- 6Rumfield hit sacrifice fly to center, Freeman scored, Moniak to third.1–8
- 4Goodman homered to left (378 feet).1–7
- 2Tovar doubled to center, Goodman scored, Rumfield to third.1–6
- 2Julien scored on Blubaugh wild pitch, Goodman to third on wild pitch by Blubaugh.1–5
- 2Julien scored on Blubaugh wild pitch, Goodman to third on wild pitch by Blubaugh.1–5
- 2Moniak hit sacrifice fly to right, Karros scored, Julien to third.1–4
- 2Julien singled to left, Doyle scored, Johnston scored and Johnston scored, Karros to second.1–3
- 2Matthews singled to left, Paredes scored, Walker to second.1–1
- 1Freeman singled to left, Julien scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 55%
- ML HOU -136 / COL +113
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -123
- COL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.7 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +8 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +53 Elo | HOU 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.5 | Runs scored | 4.017th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 30 |
| 29th of 301468 | Opponent Elo | 151010th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 140730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–6 | 9–2 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | — |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 9–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–3 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 11–5 COL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.