Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mitch GarverBatting1-3
- Bryan WooPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting2-4
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 5Seager hit sacrifice fly to center, Duran scored.0–3
- 5Nimmo grounded into fielder's choice to first, Jansen scored on throwing error by first baseman Joe and Smith scored on error, Nimmo second, Duran safe at third on error.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -118 / TEX -102
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.0%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- SEA -107
- TEX +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 3.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −16 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +21 Elo | SEA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.722nd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.58th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 24th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 2–327th of 30 |
| 13th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15109th of 30 |
| 8th of 301519 | Elo rating | 151013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 4–5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 24–17 TEX in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 41.