Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Brendan DonovanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching8.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Kyle HigashiokaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Higashioka homered to left center (388 feet), Carter scored.2–3
- 5Carter singled to right, Pederson scored.2–1
- 5Raleigh singled to center, Young scored, Donovan to third.2–0
- 1Donovan homered to right (350 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -118 / TEX -102
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 48.5%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- SEA -107
- TEX +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +4 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +11 Elo | TEX 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.820th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.79th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–3 | Road vs home | 1–328th of 30 |
| 12th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 151011th of 30 |
| 6th of 301520 | Elo rating | 150913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–7 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 4–4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 24–16 TEX in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 40.