Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Padres- Ramon LaureanoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- German MarquezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Moniak singled to right, Tovar scored.5–9
- 6Merrill doubled to center, Cronenworth scored and Laureano scored, Tatis Jr. to third.4–9
- 6Tatis Jr. walked, Fermin scored, Laureano to second, Cronenworth to third.4–7
- 4Laureano homered to left center (388 feet), Andujar scored and Fermin scored.4–6
- 3Machado homered to left center (403 feet), Merrill scored.4–3
- 3Merrill grounded into fielder's choice to first, Laureano scored, Tatis Jr. out at second.4–1
- 3Moniak homered to right center (406 feet).4–0
- 3Julien homered to left center (375 feet).3–0
- 1Moniak homered to right (384 feet), Julien scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 61%
- ML COL +143 / SD -173
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- SD: Elo 65.7%, market 60.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -154
- COL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.8 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −27 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: German Marquez: team allows 1.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +113 Elo | SD 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 60.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.115th of 30 |
| 11th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–6 | Road vs home | 4–417th of 30 |
| 10th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 148823rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301408 | Elo rating | 15255th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–4 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–10 | 6–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 15–26 SD in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 41.