San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Nick CastellanosBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- German MarquezPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-3
- Bubba ChandlerPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Laureano doubled to right, Fermin scored.5–0
- 6Cronenworth doubled to right, Fermin scored.4–0
- 5Machado grounded out to first, Tatis Jr. scored, Merrill to third.3–0
- 5Merrill hit a ground rule double, Laureano scored, Tatis Jr. to third.2–0
- 4Castellanos doubled to left, Machado scored, Sheets to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 56%
- ML SD +119 / PIT -143
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.4%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -129
- SD +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −36 | +6 | SD: German Marquez: team allows 1.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +30 Elo | PIT 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.27th of 30 |
| 4th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
| 15th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150118th of 30 |
| 8th of 301520 | Elo rating | 149021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–5 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5–1 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5–1 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 12–6 PIT in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.