San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Pirates- Konnor GriffinBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Griffin singled to left, Gonzales and Mangum scored.1–7
- 8Mangum singled to right, Yorke scored, Gonzales to third.1–5
- 8Gonzales singled to right, O'Hearn and Reynolds scored, Yorke to third.1–4
- 7Bogaerts homered to left (383 feet).1–2
- 5Cruz doubled to left, Griffin and Horwitz scored, Cruz safe at third on fielding error by catcher Fermin.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 58%
- ML SD +128 / PIT -154
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 46.4%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -138
- SD +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 2.6 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +1 | SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +25 Elo | SD 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 4th of 303–1 | Road vs home | 3–13rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150513th of 30 |
| 5th of 301523 | Elo rating | 148721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6–1 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 13–6 PIT in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.