Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sheets homered to right center (434 feet), Merrill scored and Machado scored.2–5
- 8Beck singled to right, Goodman scored, Freeman to third.2–2
- 8Goodman singled to left, Doyle scored.1–2
- 5Campusano homered to left (396 feet).0–2
- 5Sheets homered to right center (416 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 60%
- ML COL +141 / SD -171
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.9 pts
- SD: Elo 68.2%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -152
- COL +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 4.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +5 | COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +133 Elo | SD 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.115th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.911th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–5 | Road vs home | 3–422nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149321st of 30 |
| 30th of 301409 | Elo rating | 15246th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–3 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 10–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–9 | 6–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 15–25 SD in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 40.