San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Nick YorkeBatting3-3
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tatis Jr. stole home, Merrill stole second.8–2
- 9Tatis Jr. stole home, Merrill stole second.8–2
- 9Merrill grounded into fielder's choice to first, Laureano scored on error, Tatis Jr. safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Yorke, Tatis Jr. safe at third on error.7–2
- 9Tatis Jr. singled to left, Campusano scored, Laureano to second.6–2
- 9Campusano doubled to left, Johnson scored.5–2
- 7Bart singled to center, Gonzales scored.4–2
- 7Griffin hit sacrifice fly to left, Yorke scored.4–1
- 7Cronenworth homered to right center (399 feet), Castellanos scored.4–0
- 7Castellanos doubled to left, Andujar scored and Bogaerts scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML SD -121 / PIT +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- SD: Elo 52.6%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -110
- PIT +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −8 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +18 Elo | SD 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.69th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 6th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 4–12nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150613th of 30 |
| 6th of 301520 | Elo rating | 149121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–6 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6–1 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 13–7 PIT in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.