Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Christian RoaPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Raley tripled to right, Naylor scored and Arozarena scored.1–6
- 5Diaz homered to left (372 feet).1–4
- 3Donovan hit sacrifice fly to right, Raley scored, Crawford to third.0–4
- 3Young walked, Arozarena scored, Crawford to second, Raley to third.0–3
- 2Rodríguez walked, Crawford scored, Young to second, Canzone to third.0–2
- 1Arozarena singled to center, Donovan scored, Naylor to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 63%
- ML HOU +159 / SEA -193
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 57.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -171
- HOU +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.4 – 4.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −1 | HOU: Cody Bolton: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +49 Elo | SEA 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.1 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 5–413th of 30 |
| 30th of 301474 | Opponent Elo | 150612th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15208th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–4 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 14–27 SEA in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 41.