Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4
- Mike BurrowsPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Raley singled to right, Rodríguez scored.2–6
- 5Allen grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Trammell scored, Diaz out at second.2–5
- 5Diaz singled to center, Smith scored, Trammell to third.1–5
- 3Naylor homered to center (433 feet), Raleigh scored.0–5
- 1Naylor homered to right center (365 feet), Raleigh scored and Rodríguez scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 62%
- ML HOU +149 / SEA -181
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -160
- HOU +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.2 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +1 | HOU: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +41 Elo | SEA 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.921st of 30 |
| 30th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 6–413th of 30 |
| 27th of 301477 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–9 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–5 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 14–28 SEA in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 42.