Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brett SullivanBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Valente BellozoPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Padres- Ty FranceBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Merrill homered to right center (425 feet).2–7
- 6Laureano homered to left center (380 feet), France scored.2–6
- 5Machado singled to right, Merrill scored.2–4
- 5Sullivan doubled to right, Doyle scored and Tovar scored.2–3
- 4France homered to center (427 feet).0–3
- 2Fermin hit sacrifice fly to left, France scored.0–2
- 1Machado hit sacrifice fly to center, Laureano scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SD 66%
- ML COL +184 / SD -226
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- SD: Elo 68.1%, market 66.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -197
- COL +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 4.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +4 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +132 Elo | SD 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 65.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 66.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.59th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 25th of 302–7 | Road vs home | 5–413th of 30 |
| 9th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 148326th of 30 |
| 30th of 301407 | Elo rating | 15274th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–5 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | — | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–10 | 7–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 15–27 SD in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 42.