Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Willi CastroBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 3Alvarez homered to right (375 feet).1–3
- 2Castro doubled to center, Tovar scored.1–2
- 1Smith hit sacrifice fly to left, Alvarez scored.0–2
- 1Walker hit sacrifice fly to right, Correa scored, Alvarez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 63%
- ML COL +161 / HOU -196
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.5%, market 63.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -173
- COL +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −10 | COL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +88 Elo | HOU 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–9 | Road vs home | 6–22nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 147530th of 30 |
| 30th of 301404 | Elo rating | 149519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–6 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | — | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 7–10 | 13–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–12 HOU in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.