Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Rhys HoskinsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Paredes homered to left (375 feet).9–2
- 7Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Walker scored.8–2
- 5Diaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Walker scored.7–2
- 4Correa singled to center, Harris scored and Matthews scored.6–2
- 4Matthews doubled to left, Smith scored, Harris to third.4–2
- 4Paredes homered to left (383 feet).3–2
- 3Valera singled to right, Ramírez scored.2–2
- 1Hoskins singled to left, Ramírez scored, Manzardo to second.2–1
- 1Walker homered to left center (391 feet), Correa scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML HOU +113 / CLE -136
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -123
- HOU +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.3 – 3.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −21 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 1.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +25 Elo | CLE 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Road vs home | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301470 | Opponent Elo | 15144th of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Elo rating | 151511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–15 | 13–10 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 16–7 | 11–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 10–7 CLE in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.