St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Astros- Shay WhitcombBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lance McCullers Jr.Pitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Whitcomb homered to center (407 feet), Smith scored and Vázquez scored.7–5
- 8Walker grounded into double play, second to first, Altuve scored, Correa out at second, Alvarez to third.7–2
- 8Urías scored on Gordon wild pitch.7–1
- 8Urías scored on Gordon wild pitch.7–1
- 7Burleson homered to right center (408 feet).6–1
- 6Fermín homered to left center (370 feet).5–1
- 3Winn homered to left (373 feet), Gorman scored.4–1
- 1Alvarez homered to center (421 feet).2–1
- 1Gorman singled to right, Herrera scored on error and Wetherholt scored, Gorman safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Smith, Walker safe at third on error.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML STL +124 / HOU -149
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.6%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -134
- STL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −11 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +32 Elo | HOU 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.36th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 6.029th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 6th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 7–48th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 146830th of 30 |
| 25th of 301480 | Elo rating | 149221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–9 | 8–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–7–1 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–5 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.