St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Altuve reached on infield single to shortstop, Trammell scored, Correa to third.7–5
- 10Winn doubled to left, Herrera scored, Urías scored and Walker scored.7–4
- 8Paredes singled to right, Altuve scored and Walker scored.4–4
- 8Alvarez homered to right (357 feet).4–2
- 5Herrera singled to left, Scott II scored, Wetherholt to second.4–1
- 5Wetherholt singled to right, Church scored and Pagés scored, Scott II to third.3–1
- 5Scott II walked, Winn scored, Pagés to second, Church to third.1–1
- 3Correa hit sacrifice fly to center, Trammell scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML STL +128 / HOU -154
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.4%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -138
- STL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 4.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +4 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +31 Elo | HOU 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.35th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 6.029th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 4th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 7–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 146930th of 30 |
| 25th of 301482 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–9 | 8–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 4–10 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–7–1 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 6–5 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.