Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Ryan WeissPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alvarez doubled to left, Matthews scored.5–8
- 8Manzardo singled to right, DeLauter scored and Ramírez scored.4–8
- 8DeLauter tripled to left, Martínez scored, Rocchio scored and Kwan scored.4–6
- 8Rocchio singled to center, Schneemann scored, Martínez to second.4–3
- 7Correa reached on infield single to second, Smith scored, D. Johnson to second, Diaz to third.4–2
- 5Alvarez singled to left, Diaz scored and Harris scored, Alvarez out stretching at second, Correa to third.3–2
- 5Matthews singled to center, Paredes scored, Matthews out stretching at second, Diaz to third.1–2
- 2Martínez homered to right center (399 feet).0–2
- 1Valera singled to left, Ramírez scored, Manzardo to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 58%
- ML HOU +129 / CLE -156
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -140
- HOU +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.1 – 4.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +13 | HOU: Ryan Weiss: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +42 Elo | CLE 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 29th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–9 | Road vs home | 7–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 301471 | Opponent Elo | 15135th of 30 |
| 20th of 301492 | Elo rating | 151113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–15 | 13–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–11 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–7 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 11–7 CLE in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.