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New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, Fox, FS1, YES, NESN+

Away

Yankees

16-9

4–2

at

Home

Red Sox

9-16

NYY 58%BOS 42%

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Fenway Park · MLB.TV, Fox, FS1, YES, NESN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.

BOS75%50%75%NYYStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Yankees
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Cam SchlittlerPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Red Sox
  • Carlos NarvaezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Payton TollePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K

Scoring summary

  • 7Judge singled to right, Caballero scored on error, Judge safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Abreu, Bellinger safe at third on error.4–2
  • 7Bellinger singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored and Grisham scored, Caballero to second.3–2
  • 5Narváez homered to left center (383 feet).1–2
  • 5Chisholm Jr. homered to right (333 feet).1–1
  • 2Mayer doubled to center, Story scored.0–1

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Yankees 58%

LeanHit
NYY 58%BOS 42%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
NYY 58%
ML NYY -156 / BOS +129
Pre-line forecast
NYY 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYY 57%
Ratings vs. market
−1.5 pts
NYY: Elo 56.8%, market 58.3%
Fair odds
NYY -140
BOS +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NYY 4.1 – 3.4 BOS
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYYBOSWhy
Team rating15481511Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+13−16NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Payton Tolle: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYY +48 EloNYY 56.8%
Market-implied ratingsNYY 54.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYY 54.9%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYY 58.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox compared, with each team's league rank
NYYStatBOS
9th of 304.9Runs scored3.826th of 30
3rd of 303.5Runs allowed4.618th of 30
4th of 30+1.5Margin−0.825th of 30
4th of 307–3Last 104–619th of 30
4th of 307–4Road vs home5–724th of 30
24th of 301490Opponent Elo15097th of 30
2nd of 301548Elo rating151111th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

YankeesRed Sox
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYYBOS
Run line14–107–17
Last 105–53–7
Favorite11–96–13
Underdog3–11–4
Overs–unders9–13–212–12
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NYY 19–25 BOS in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 44.