New York Yankees at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Astros- Carlos CorreaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker homered to left (398 feet).8–3
- 9McMahon singled to right, Rosario scored, Wells to second.8–2
- 9Wells singled to right, Bellinger scored, Rosario to third.7–2
- 8Rice hit sacrifice fly to center, McMahon scored, Caballero to third.6–2
- 7Chisholm Jr. walked, Rice scored, Bellinger to second, Judge to third.5–2
- 7Bellinger walked, Grisham scored, Judge to second, Rice to third.4–2
- 7Wells homered to right (343 feet).3–2
- 6Correa homered to left center (391 feet).2–2
- 5Caballero homered to left center (357 feet).2–1
- 3Grisham homered to left (363 feet).1–1
- 1Paredes singled to left, Correa scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML NYY -156 / HOU +129
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -140
- HOU +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 5.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +2 | NYY: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +41 Elo | NYY 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 6.029th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 309–4 | Road vs home | 7–718th of 30 |
| 24th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 147729th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301552 | Elo rating | 148921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–10 | 10–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 13–9 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–14–2 | 19–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 15–6 HOU in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 21.