Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Carlos CortesBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gelof homered to left (375 feet), McNeil scored.8–1
- 5Cortes homered to right (409 feet), Gelof scored and Kurtz scored.6–1
- 4Jung hit a ground rule double, Seager scored.3–1
- 1Soderstrom homered to center (415 feet).3–0
- 1Cortes homered to right center (390 feet).2–0
- 1Kurtz homered to right (417 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 56%
- ML ATH +117 / TEX -141
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.1%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- TEX -127
- ATH +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.7 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +5 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +57 Elo | TEX 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 10th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 5–414th of 30 |
| 8th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15096th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301484 | Elo rating | 15168th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–11 | 13–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–6 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–11–1 | 11–12–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 17–26 TEX in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 43.