Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran doubled to left, Smith scored, Jung to third.3–7
- 9Carter hit sacrifice fly to second, Langford scored.2–7
- 8Rivas hit sacrifice fly to center, Young scored.1–7
- 8Young singled to center, Raley scored and Canzone scored.1–6
- 6Raley homered to right (381 feet).1–4
- 6Jung homered to center (412 feet).1–3
- 4Canzone singled to center, Arozarena scored and Raley scored.0–3
- 1Rodríguez singled to right, Crawford scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 56%
- ML TEX +119 / SEA -143
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -129
- TEX +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.5 – 4.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +3 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +10 Elo | SEA 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.725th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | 0.012th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 7th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 7–58th of 30 |
| 5th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15096th of 30 |
| 8th of 301518 | Elo rating | 15169th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–9 | 9–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9–2 | 9–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 19–24 SEA in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 43.