Texas Rangers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Burger homered to left (408 feet), Seager scored and Langford scored.5–6
- 7Wilson homered to left (370 feet), Soderstrom scored.2–6
- 6Langeliers homered to left center (467 feet), Butler scored.2–4
- 3Seager homered to right center (410 feet), Nimmo scored.2–2
- 2Clarke singled to left, Muncy scored.0–2
- 1Soderstrom doubled to left, Cortes scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 52%
- ML TEX -103 / ATH -117
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- ATH: Elo 50.3%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- ATH -106
- TEX +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.9 – 5.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +2 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +2 Elo | ATH 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 30 |
| 5th of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 15156th of 30 |
| 11th of 301514 | Elo rating | 148723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–9 | 11–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–8–2 | 6–10–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 25–16 ATH in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 41.