Texas Rangers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Butler homered to right (376 feet).8–1
- 8Jung doubled to center, Smith scored and Higashioka scored.8–0
- 8Smith singled to left, Pederson scored and Seager scored, Higashioka to second.6–0
- 3Burger homered to right (382 feet).4–0
- 1Burger homered to center (417 feet), Carter scored and Seager scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -126 / ATH +104
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- ATH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +9 Elo | TEX 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 2–17th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301521 | Opponent Elo | 15156th of 30 |
| 12th of 301512 | Elo rating | 148923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–8 | 10–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7–2 | 5–9–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 24–15 ATH in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 39.