Athletics at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Huascar BrazobanPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soderstrom homered to right center (420 feet), Kurtz scored and Langeliers scored.11–6
- 8Langeliers singled to left, Clarke scored, Kurtz to second.8–6
- 7Polanco homered to right (346 feet).7–6
- 6Baty hit sacrifice fly to center, Benge scored.7–5
- 6Alvarez homered to center (413 feet).7–4
- 5Bichette homered to right (344 feet), Lindor scored.7–3
- 3Cortes homered to right center (406 feet), Wilson scored and McNeil scored.7–1
- 3Soderstrom homered to right center (386 feet), Langeliers scored.4–1
- 2Butler grounded into fielder's choice to second, McNeil scored, Clarke out at second, Cortes to third.2–1
- 2Clarke walked, Wilson scored, Cortes to second, McNeil to third.1–1
- 1Bichette singled to center, Robert Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 59%
- ML ATH +135 / NYM -163
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 57.8%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -146
- ATH +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.3 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +10 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +55 Elo | NYM 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.017th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Road vs home | 3–425th of 30 |
| 5th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 149420th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301484 | Elo rating | 150814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–5 | 6–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8–1 | 6–6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 4–6 NYM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.
