Athletics at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting3-4
- J.T. GinnPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4
- Clay HolmesPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clarke singled to center, Gelof scored and Muncy scored.4–0
- 9McNeil singled to left, Wilson scored.2–0
- 3Langeliers singled to right, Cortes scored, Kurtz to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML ATH +124 / NYM -149
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 58.6%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -134
- ATH +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.7 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +8 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +60 Elo | NYM 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.312th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 3–315th of 30 |
| 4th of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 149420th of 30 |
| 24th of 301481 | Elo rating | 151113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–5 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7–1 | 6–5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 3–6 NYM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
