Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pages singled to left, T. Hernández scored.3–6
- 6Nimmo homered to right center (396 feet), Jung scored.3–5
- 3T. Hernández grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Smith scored, Muncy out at second, Freeman to third.1–5
- 1T. Hernández homered to left center (393 feet), Smith scored and Freeman scored.1–4
- 1Ohtani homered to right (390 feet).1–1
- 1Nimmo homered to center (405 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML TEX +153 / LAD -186
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.8%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -165
- TEX +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.5 – 4.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +3 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +62 Elo | LAD 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.9 | Runs scored | 6.41st of 30 |
| 6th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +2.71st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 8th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 5–22nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 12th of 301511 | Elo rating | 15641st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–7 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–6–2 | 6–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 4–6 LAD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.