Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting4-5, 3 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Muncy homered to right center (401 feet).7–8
- 9Duran singled to left, Haggerty scored, Nimmo to second.7–7
- 9Carter homered to right center (373 feet), Pederson scored.6–7
- 8Pages homered to center (396 feet), Muncy scored.4–7
- 6Pages doubled to right, T. Hernández scored and Muncy scored.4–5
- 5Kim hit sacrifice fly to left, Pages scored.4–3
- 5Langford homered to left (365 feet).4–2
- 4Muncy homered to left center (396 feet).3–2
- 3Seager homered to center (409 feet), Smith scored and Nimmo scored.3–1
- 2Muncy homered to right center (399 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 67%
- ML TEX +194 / LAD -240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.5%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -208
- TEX +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.4 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +9 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +81 Elo | LAD 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 67.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 6.31st of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.44th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +2.82nd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 5th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 12th of 301512 | Elo rating | 15631st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–7 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 7–5 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–6–2 | 5–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 4–5 LAD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.