Athletics at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-4
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 3Kurtz homered to right (363 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 59%
- ML ATH +135 / NYM -163
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 57.0%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -146
- ATH +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.1 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +3 | ATH: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +49 Elo | NYM 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.117th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 3–527th of 30 |
| 6th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 149222nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301487 | Elo rating | 150514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–5 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8–1 | 7–6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–6 NYM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.
