Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Evan CarterBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran scored on Klein wild pitch, Nimmo to second.5–2
- 8Duran scored on Klein wild pitch, Nimmo to second on wild pitch by Klein.5–2
- 8Nimmo singled to center, Jung scored, Duran to third.4–2
- 7Tucker singled to right, Rushing scored, Rojas to third.3–2
- 6Nimmo grounded out to first, Jung scored, Duran to second.3–1
- 3Smith singled to right, Pederson scored, Jansen to second.2–1
- 3Carter homered to right center (388 feet).1–1
- 1Ohtani homered to right center (374 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 56%
- ML TEX +118 / LAD -143
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -128
- TEX +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.0 – 4.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −21 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 1.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +51 Elo | LAD 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 6.41st of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +2.71st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 10th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 6–22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 13th of 301510 | Elo rating | 15651st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–8 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 6–6–2 | 7–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 4–7 LAD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.