Texas Rangers at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3Wilson singled to left, Clarke scored and Langeliers scored, Kurtz to second.1–2
- 1Burger singled to left, Nimmo scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML TEX -131 / ATH +109
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 49.4%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- ATH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +6 | TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +4 Elo | ATH 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 15146th of 30 |
| 11th of 301515 | Elo rating | 148624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–8 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7–2 | 6–9–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 25–15 ATH in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 40.